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Why Asia

 


Our investment thesis for Asia is founded upon a single principle: we believe Asia will continue to be the world's premier growth region. Our belief is derived from four central tenets:
  1. Asia is a large and globally significant market
  2. Asia's economies are on a sustainable, high-growth trajectory
  3. Asia's fundamentals are attractive
  4. Asia is home to many world-class companies

Asia is one of the world's largest regions by any measurement. Nearly one half of the world's population resides in Asia. 24% of the world's economic output is currently produced in Asia.* 17% of the world's total market capitalization is found on Asia's stock exchanges.* Asia is a major global force, and we believe its relative status will only improve.

 

*Source: MICM and Goldman Sachs



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Asia has a remarkable record of high and sustained economic growth. Over the past 20 years, the region has posted an average growth rate of 4.4%, significantly above the world average rate of 3.3%. Asia's expansion has surpassed both the United States and the European Union, with growth rates of 3.2% and 2.3% respectively. As a result, the region's collective economy has attained an absolute size that is on par with the European Union. We believe Asia's strong growth will continue
.

 

1Compound Average Growth Rate.

Source: MICM, IMF, U.S. Federal Reserve, Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs



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Since 1960, economists and analysts have consistently noted Asia's sound investment characteristics. The region has been lauded for its high savings rates, its advanced levels of educational attainment, and its collective emphasis on hard work and enterprise. However, despite these positive fundamentals, the region's growth potential was hindered by structural weaknesses. Those weaknesses were the root cause of the recent financial crisis, which led the region into a severe economic downturn.

We believe the crisis is over now, and many of Asia's structural impediments have been removed. The crisis prompted many governments and corporations to address structural problems. As a result, the region's financial markets have shown vast improvements, and we believe the region's investment potential has been further solidified.

 
Asia's Structural Problems
(Pre-Crisis)
Ramifications Evidence of Reform
(Post Crisis)
Local Currencies Artificially Linked to the U.S. Dollar Declining export competitiveness

Rising current account deficits

Artificially low cost of capital distorted investment decisions
Free-floating, stable currencies

Rising current account surpluses

Strong foreign reserve positions

 
Misallocation of Capital &
Investment in Unproductive Sectors
Over-optimistic growth forecasts lead to build-up of excess capacity

Aggressive lending by financial sector fueled dubious expansion

Governments artificially boosted growth through over-reliance on export industries
New emphasis on decentralized economies

Efficient capital markets impose constraints on expansion

Economic growth increasingly fueled by domestic consumption

 
Weak Financial Institutions Banks focused on growth and market share, not profitability

Poor lending practices lead to overexposure to risky sectors

Poorly developed capital markets prompted companies to rely on non-transparent sources of funding, i.e. bank loans

 
Reforms including re-capitalization and management changes

Management focus shifted to profitability over growth

Better regulation and disclosure

Increased foreign bank participation

 
Poor Corporate Governance &
Transparency
Weak regulatory controls fostered environment of poor corporate transparency

Management conducted dubious transactions (i.e. off-balance sheet liabilities, high-risk projects, excessive debt)

Minority shareholders denied fair representation in company affairs

 
Regulatory reforms, including quarterly financial disclosures

Greater reliance on professional management teams

Higher foreign ownership levels

 


Source: MICM


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Asia's companies are the most compelling reason to invest in the region. Asia is a hotbed of entrepreneurial innovation. Recent market reforms and technological innovation have accelerated entrepreneurial growth: 1999 witnessed historic levels of new-company formation. Asia's entrepreneurial drive has given birth to some of the world's most competitive companies, especially in the areas of technology, finance, and retail consumption. In our opinion, many global and international portfolios maintain low weightings in Asia due to the region's perceived status as an emerging market. We have a different view: we believe Asia's companies offer an excellent combination of solid fundamentals and strong growth potential. Like a collection of "hidden jewels," we believe Asia's companies are well-positioned to sparkle over the long run.

Investing in foreign securities may involve certain additional risks, including exchange rate fluctuations, less liquidity, greater volatility and less regulation.
 

 

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